NBC takes gamble; gives Leno 10PM slot

After what has seemed like endless speculation about whether or not Jay Leno will stay with NBC once Conan O'Brien takes over The Tonight Show in May 2009, the peacock network dropped a bombshell this week:

Leno is staying and they're moving him to 10PM.

For months, Leno has been taking jabs at NBC on his late-night program and for the most part, it seemed like the supposedly disgruntled host would probably end up on either FOX or ABC as a direct competitor to Conan. Not the case - Leno has changed his tune and seems happy to be staying around. The magnitude of this move is immeasurable. NBC is taking a huge gamble and there are a number of things to consider...

• By moving Leno into the prime-time 10PM slot, NBC is effectively saying good-bye to original programming in that block. No more hour long dramas means NBC saves money. Considering that Sunday Night Football consumes all of its respective night, that means NBC potentially has to program only 8PM to 10PM, five nights a week. That's a mere 10 hours of original programming, 3 or 4 of which are almost assuredly going to be reality shows. This is an entirely new model for the evening TV landscape.
• Despite the fact that Leno is currently a ratings darling, that too may change. Consider what he'll now be going up against - CSI: Miami and CSI: NY are both huge ratings grabbers for CBS and FOX still airs 10PM local news broadcasts on most of its affiliates which often do much better than competitors 11PM broadcasts. Will a traditional late-night audience be around at 10PM?
• More than anything though, this unfortunately speaks directly to NBC's faith in Conan O'Brien. The Late Night host admitted this week that much of his success is owed directly to having Jay Leno as a lead-in and he said he was thrilled for that to continue. Personally I can't see how he could possibly be happy about this since it's sure to hurt his numbers as he tries to gain new fans in May. While it's expected that Conan will bring his sizable viewership numbers with him, he's still a much newer, fresher, and younger host, while Leno's style still hearkens back to the days of Johnny Carson - a style many still prefer. Having Leno continue as Conan's lead-in not only takes away from the monumental transition on The Tonight Show, it practically negates it. You may recall the feud between Letterman and Leno when Carson retired. Granted Leno isn't retiring and that's the point - the average American isn't going to view this as anything other than, "Oh hey, all those shows start an hour earlier." Also, consider this: currently Leno leads right into Conan - a HUGE help. Once the regime change takes place, the 11PM news will be in between them. Will Leno's legion stick around for that 1/2 hour? Number will probably drop off.

Of course, lost in all of this mess is Jimmy Fallon, who's taking over the Late Night seat. What does everyone else think though? Is this move a risk for NBC, or a more-of-the-same safe bet?